Today I’m putting myself out there and making predictions for the number of new listings we’ll see in February, March, April, and May 2021. My hope with today’s video is that it helps you shift from a mindset of scarcity and despair to one of abundance and opportunity. Stay calm; inventory is coming, and you’ll be able to find homes for your buyers. We’ve compiled a data set of month-to-month changes in inventory for the past five years, removed outliers (e.g., April and May 2020), and used the median percent increases to extrapolate the first half of this year.
Here’s the good news: According to our extremely conservative model, we should see 457 new listings in our market by the end of January. As of January 20, 2021, new listings are already at 445. Curious to see what our model says for the following months?
Cited below for your convenience are timestamps that will direct you to various points in the video. Feel free to watch the full message, or use these timestamps to skip to topics that interest you most:
1:02 — Five years’ worth of data for month-to-month increases in inventory (December - May)
3:03 — Using the median percent increase to make our 2021 predictions, adjusting for COVID
4:11 — Removing outliers from our dataset; early signs of accuracy for January 2021
5:30 — Specific predictions for new listings from February through May
6:10 — Give your buyers the confidence of knowing that more inventory is on its way
7:24 — Competition will still be fierce, but early 2021 will offer shade for burnt-out buyers
So, as you can see by these rather cautious predictions that are rooted in proven past trends and factor in the realities of the health crisis, you and your buyers have plenty of justification for optimism. Make use of these numbers, position yourself as the expert, offer other fact-based reassurances, and give your buyers a much-needed morale boost.
As always, reach out to us via phone or email if you have any questions, comments, or concerns regarding the numbers I shared in today’s video. We’d love to hear your thoughts and help out in whatever way we can. Let’s crush 2021! 💪